Moscow may welcome Rumen Radev’s victory in Bulgaria, but he is no new Orbán. The comparison captures the risk on Ukraine, but misses the constraints likely to shape his conduct inside the EU.
Higher oil prices triggered by the war in Iran have boosted Russia’s finances. But now Russia is banning gasoline exports until late July, as Ukrainian strikes make fuel scarcer domestically – while murmurs in the EU suggest energy pain may drive them back to Russia. The question is: how long Kyiv’s allies will support a strategy that could also keep EU energy prices high?