Putin appears haggard and mis-states Russian advances (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,593)Every day, the Ukraine Battlefield update newsletter offers a clear look at how the war is unfolding on the ground. Subscribe for free here to get the full text delivered to your inbox.
- Russia claims it has captured Kostyantynivka. It is not true.
- The maps Vladimir Putin was shown before he said everything is going according to plan.
- Ukraine has run out of Patriot missiles, Iskanders have a free path to Kyiv, the damage is extensive and more civilians have died.
- Flamingos tried to hit another factory producing components for Iskanders, Russians shot them all down.
- Chart of the day – according to the Finns, this year has already seen two months in which Russia has lost more territory than it has captured.
- Maps of the day – Putin’s maps; Kostyantynivka; unsuccessful FP-5 Flamingo raid
- Videos of the day – Russians managed to shoot down a Hunter; successful strike on a Mi-8 helicopter
Russia claims it has captured Kostyantynivka. It is not true. After a significant break, Russian propaganda showed Vladimir Putin in uniform and at a location it claimed was somewhere near the front line. It is not known where.
In a corridor whose walls were covered with camouflage netting, the Russian president was welcomed by his chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov. The whole scene looked very unnatural, which led to speculation that the footage had been filmed in a safe location that they tried to dress up to resemble a military headquarters.
Putin’s poor physical condition was also striking. He looked insecure and exhausted. Yet this was part of a media operation that also included the announcement of the alleged capture of Kostyantynivka.
Before we get to Putin’s maps, let us first look at what Russia is claiming about Kostyantynivka and what the reality is. The Russian military blog Romanov Light wrote tersely: Kostyantynivka = Kupiansk. This referred to the well‑known story from last August, when Gerasimov, under similar circumstances, prematurely informed Putin about the capture of Kupiansk, which is still today mostly under the control of the Ukrainian army.
“Russian forces have taken control of the town of Kostyantynivka,” Putin declared on Friday (3 July). The Ukrainian army rejected this claim almost immediately.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian analyst Petrenko published two maps on which he geolocated the places where Russians showed their flags. They are spread across the town and, while on the first map the author still marked the central part as controlled by the Ukrainian army, on the second the whole town is already shaded.
In addition, the Ukrainians published an edited compilation of videos from various parts of the town and from positions where they have their soldiers. “This refutes Russia’s claim of the complete capture of the town. The key evidence is geolocation data confirming Ukrainian control,” Petrenko wrote.
Most Russian Z-channels repeat the Kremlin’s rhetoric about the capture of the town, but at the same time they write about “clearing out the remaining Ukrainian units”. This is the case, for example, with the well-known and influential Rybar channel, which in the same breath as reporting the town’s capture writes about ongoing fighting.
The Polish OSINT account Thorkill has traditionally been ahead of Ukrainian and independent sources. He has long considered the battle decided and was the first to report a serious deterioration of the situation there. However, he too was still rejecting Russia’s victory announcement:
“Any footage from the northwestern outskirts (including the hospital area and neighbouring administrative buildings), as well as from the northeastern sector, the so‑called historic centre, is missing,” he wrote about where Russian flags are appearing. “This suggests that groups of Ukrainian soldiers may still be present there. It is not known, however, whether they are completely or only partially encircled, and whether their withdrawal from the town is still possible,” this source said, adding that Ukrainians still control the northern entrances to the town.
We therefore do not know whether Romanov Light is right and Kostyantynivka will become a new Russian Kupiansk, or whether those who claim that the battle has already been decided are correct. The second option seems much more likely. In any case, Russia’s statement about the capture of the town is inaccurate and premature.
What maps Putin is shown before he says that everything is going according to plan. Gerasimov, for instance, told Putin that Russian units were nine kilometres from Zaporizhzhia. On its own map, the Institute for the Study of War showed the reality and where Russian troops would be if Gerasimov had not been lying:
Russian Rybar reveals these inaccuracies even better. In the following image, the official Russian map from the defence ministry, shown publicly on Friday, is on the left, and on the right is Rybar’s map of the western flank of the Zaporizhzhia axis. It is the same area as in the previous image.
On the Russian defence ministry’s image, the front line corresponds to the claim that there are only nine kilometres left to reach Zaporizhzhia. However, even Russian unofficial propaganda channels place the front roughly 16 km further back.
Orikhiv is also worth noting, as on the Kremlin’s map it is surrounded by red from three sides. This is what the area around the town looks like according to the Black Bird Group. Also note the small town of Pokrovske in the upper right corner. Putin is shown that there is direct fighting over it as well. In this case too, the front line is about 15 km further away, to Russia’s disadvantage.
Ukraine has run out of Patriot missiles, Iskanders had a free path to Kyiv, the damage is extensive. During the night from Sunday to Monday, Russia launched 351 drones against Ukraine, mainly targeting Kyiv; 326 of them were shot down, which is a 93-percent success rate.
Among the Ch-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, 39 were launched in total, 37 of which were destroyed, giving as much as a 95-percent success rate.
However, Ukrainian air defences did not manage to shoot down a single one of the six supersonic, originally anti‑ship Zircon missiles, nor any of the 23 Iskander and S-400 missiles (Russia is again using originally surface‑to‑air missiles to shell cities).
The first video shows a Kyiv housing estate at the moment one of the Russian weapons hits.
The next video shows a destroyed residential building.
Russia hit residential buildings in several districts of the city. At the time of writing, there were already 14 fatalities. During the air raid on 2 July last week, there were even more – as many as 31. Ukrainians said that Russia was increasing the intensity of its use of ballistic missiles.
Roman Pataj