THIS WEEK: Final push for US trade deal and migration returns as EU leaders travel to Mexico

EU Council president António Costa and commission president Ursula von der Leyen will be travelling to Mexico for a summit taking place on Friday (22 May) focused on trade and international relations. 

The last EU-Mexico summit was held back in 2015. Mexico is seen as one of the EU’s main strategic allies in Latin America, and a member of the UN, OECD, and G20.

In 2024, the EU solidified its position as Mexico’s third-largest trading partner (only behind the US and China), with bilateral trade exceeding €82bn. In the trade balance, the EU exported €53bn worth of goods while importing €29bn.

The EU provides Mexican industry with high-tech machinery, transport equipment, and agri-foods, while Mexico powers European supply chains with a steady flow of automotive parts, electronics, and energy, alongside agricultural exports.

“The upcoming EU-Mexico summit marks a milestone in our relationship, ushering in a new era of deeper strategic cooperation,” said Costa in a statement. 

With the modernised EU-Mexico Global Agreement, many of the remaining tariffs on goods, especially in the agri-food sector, are being phased out.

Ahead of the EU-Mexico summit, Costa will be in Guatemala — which three years ago went through a crisis following the surprise electoral victory of anti-corruption reformer Bernardo Arévalo. The visit is seen as a sign of support for Arévalo and democracy in the country. 

Meanwhile, the EU’s development commissioner Jozef Síkela and US special envoy Jeff Landry are both travelling to Greenland this week. Jens-Frederik Nielsen, Greenland’s prime minister, is scheduled to meet Landry on Monday. However, the Danish government will be notably absent from the gathering due to ongoing coalition talks back home.

Final push for EU-US trade deal and returns 

This week will also see the last round of negotiations between EU countries and MEPs on two important files: the ‘Turnberry’ trade deal with the US and the so-called return directive. 

Following weeks of intense pressure from Donald Trump, who recently threatened a 25 percent tariff on European cars if a deal isn’t reached by 4 July, EU negotiators are rushing to finalise the agreement struck last summer in Scotland — with talks expected to deliver a deal on Tuesday (19 May).

MEPs, led by chief negotiator German socialist Bernd Lange, are demanding safeguards. These include the power to suspend the deal immediately if the US violates EU territorial integrity, and a six-month deadline for the US to reduce steel and aluminium duties from 50 percent to a maximum of 15 percent.

Meanwhile, negotiators are expected to clinch a deal on Wednesday (20 May) for new rules on deportations, which dovetails into the EU’s migration pact, whose implementation is coming into force on 11 June.

The return regulation, backed by a rightwing coalition of the European People’s Party (EPP) with far-right MEPs, will provide the legal grounds for EU states to set up deportation centres abroad.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) have slammed the mandate, particularly criticising provisions that allow for home raids and the removal of voluntary return incentives.

The new rules are intended to tackle an often-cited figure, whereby only one-in-five migrants who are ordered to leave the EU actually end up leaving. But this figure also fails to take into account that some return decisions are counted twice, while others leave voluntarily from other EU states without ever being registered as a return.