As EU birth-rates plummet, nativist family politics ascend

At 1.5 children per woman, the EU cannot ensure a sufficient population replacement rate — which could lead to difficulties in financing the welfare models and the care of the ageing population. At least, not without immigration.

And ahead of the EU elections, many far-right candidates are offering the voters an alternative: Viktor Orbán-style family policies.

“Without migration, we will starve,” said EU home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson said earlier in January, at a panel discussion in Greece on migration issues.

This statement caused great anger, especially among the rightwing politicians of Europe. And in France that quote is used on the radical-right Reconquête party’s EU campaign posters, to cite just one example.

Many EU member states are shocked to see a strong decline in their fertility rates. French women, for example, are having fewer children than ever. Just 678,000 babies were born in the country last year, which is the lowest number since World War II.

According to Ined, France’s National Institute of Demographic Studies, this is primarily due to women having fewer or no children at all. However, the population increased slightly, principally thanks to fewer deaths — and immigration. The ‘replacement rate’, at which a population is stable, is 2.1 and in the European Union’s countries, the fertility is much lower, around 1.5.

In 2000 the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.7 births per woman, today it is at 2.3 — and falling. But there are great differences between countries: sub-Saharan Africa, for example, has a fertility rate of 4.45.